ABSTRACT
Subway station emergencies are gradually increasing in China. The aim of this research is to study the effects of “Dist”, “Pedestrian flow” and “Crowd density” on the heterogeneity of passengers’ decision-making preference and explore the relationship between heterogeneity and personality. Firstly, a questionnaire of 20 emergency evacuation scenarios, that includes the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire, is designed. Secondly, the heterogeneity of passengers’ decision preference is quantified by the random parameter logit model. Finally, personality traits and influencing factors are used as abscissa and ordinate respectively, to study the relationship between personality traits and preference heterogeneity. The results show that the coefficients of “Dist”, “Pedestrian flow” and “Crowd density” are −0.101, 0.236 and −0.442 respectively, which are statistically significant. The proportion of extroverted passengers of the exit is 9% higher than that of introverted passengers when “Pedestrian flow” of the exit is greater than the average value, while the proportion of introverted passengers is 7% higher than that of extroverted passengers when “Crowd density” is smaller than the average value. The conclusion is that the three influence factors are random variables, and “Dist” shows the lowest level of heterogeneity. Extroverted passengers are more likely to follow a large crowd for evacuation, but introverted passengers are more likely to avoid crowded exits.
ABSTRACT
Background: After the outbreak of Coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19), stringent lockdown measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23, 2020 and April 8, 2020. To provide evidence on the post-lockdown risk of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, the city government conducted a citywide nucleic acid screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection between May 14 and June 1, 2020. Methods: All city residents aged [≥]6 years were potentially eligible to participate the screening programme. The rate of detection of asymptomatic infected cases was calculated, and their demographic and geographic distributions were investigated. ArcGIS 10.0 was used to draw a geographic distribution of asymptomatic infected persons. Results: The screening programme recruited a total of 9,899,828 persons (response rate, 92.9%). The screening found no newly confirmed patients with COVID-19, and identified 300 asymptomatic infected cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000). In addition, 107 of 34,424 previously recovered patients with a history of COVID-19 diagnosis were tested positive (relapse rate, 0.31%). Virus culture of SARS-CoV-2 was negative for all 300 asymptomatic cases and all 107 recovered COVID-19 patients. A total of 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases were traced and all of them had a negative nucleic acid testing result. Conclusions: Prevalence of COVID-19 nucleic acid test positivity was very low in the Wuhan general population, in recovered cases and in contacts of asymptomatic cases, five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown. These findings help resolve concerns about the post-lockdown risk of COVID-19 epidemic, and promote the recovery of economy and normal social life in Wuhan.